This post is part of an ongoing series that endeavors to report measurements of Fukushima derived radionuclides in the environment to help determine the likely impact on ecosystem and public health in western North America. One of the goals of the InFORM project is to provide quality measurements of Fukushima derived radionuclides in the North Pacific to help verify model predictions of ecosystem and public health impacts of the disaster. The purpose of this post is to summarize results of a recent peer reviewed study by Kaeriyama and colleagues published in Environmental Science & Technology who measured radioactive isotopes of cesium (137-Cs half life ~30 yr and 134-Cs half life ~ 2 yr) in the western North Pacific Ocean to help track the location and movement of the Fukushima contaminated seawater plume.
The purpose of this blog is to bring to the attention of interested readers a recent peer-reviewed, open-access study published in the Journal or Radiological Protection . The investigators describe the design and manufacture of a whole body sensor whose purpose is the detection of 137-Cs (half-life ~30 years) in children who were proximate to radionuclide releases after the triple meltdowns at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant which began in March 2011. Health impacts of the disaster are likely to be most acute in Japan given that levels of radionuclides in air, soil and water resulting from the disaster were higher compared to levels measured and expected on the west coast of North America. The detector in question (called BABYSCAN) is demonstrated to have a detection limit of better than 50 Bq/body and has been installed in a hospital in Fukushima. Because children are most vulnerable to the impacts of ionizing radiation, 100 Fukushima children were scanned for the presence of 137-Cs and none were found to have detectable levels of the isotope in their bodies. Larger scale measurements of the population will be reported as the long term impacts of low levels of ionizing radiation present owing to the Fukushima disaster warrant further study.
As a result of the radionuclides released to the atmosphere after the meltdowns in March 2011 at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant, Fukushima Prefecture was contaminated with radioactive cesium (134-Cs and 137-Cs) and other isotopes, which pose radiological health risks to the resident population. As would be expected for parents around the world, parents of small children in Fukushima Prefecture have great concern about the internal exposure experienced by their offspring.
The paper by Hayano and colleagues describes the design and manufacture of a whole body scanner designed specifically for the purpose of detecting gamma-emitting isotopes that have been internalized by children. The instrument was first installed at the Hirata Central Hospital in Fukushima Prefecture in December 2013. The design principles, implementation and the initial operating experience are reported in the paper.
The age distribution of the first 100 children who were selected for isotope counting are given in the figure below:
Given the experimental conditions the minimum detectable activity (MDA) for 137-Cs (Bq/body), was calculated for each subject and plotted against weight for each child as shown below.
The detection limit of BABYSCAN for 137-Cs, one of the most significant isotopes with respect to radiological health risks released from Fukushima, is better than 50 Bq/body. Despite this low detection limit, 137-Cs was not detected in any of the first 100 children scanned from the most contaminated areas of Japan in Fukushima Prefecture. Ongoing analyses will be carried out on a larger-scale with BABYSCAN and reported in publications by the investigators in the future. I will report on data as it becomes available.
This post is part of an ongoing series that endeavors to provide useful and accurate information about: 1) the fate of Fukushima derived radionuclides in the Pacific Ocean, and, 2) the impact of these radionuclides on the marine ecosystem and the west coast of North America. The purpose of this diary is to draw attention to a number of poorly researched posts about a recently published study (unfortunately this study is behind a publisher pay-wall) in a Chinese journal that predicts a concentrated plume of radioactive elements from Fukushima arriving on the west coast. It is an unfortunate but common example of how news aggregation sites can misinterpret the results of a scientific study and misinform the public.
What models can and cannot say about the Fukushima plume
The study in question by Fu and co-workers published in the Journal of Ocean University of China in 2014 (behind pay-wall unfortunately) is wholly incapable of describing the behavior of dissolved radionuclides in the plume that is now arriving on the west coast of North America.
From the paper the authors themselves state in the methods that:
“In the study, the radioactive pollutant in the ocean is treated as a mixture of multiple Lagrangian particulates, and each particulate represents a radioactive element. The particulates can move in both horizontal and vertical directions, but cannot diffuse and mix with surrounding seawater.”
What this means is that rather than being allowed to mix and diffuse (or decay or sink after becoming associated with particles) the radionuclides are treated as neutrally buoyant drifters. The model, therefore, greatly overestimates the concentrations of radionuclides reaching the west coast of North America in the plume.
For those interested in models using accurate physics that will allow for an accurate prediction of radionuclide concentrations consult the following studies:
The Behrens et al. study is open-access while the Rossi et al. study is not. Measurements taken in the North Pacific by Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans and InFORM team member Dr. John Smith indicate that the Rossi et al. study predicts the arrival time of the plume on the west coast but overestimates the activity of the Fukushima derived radionuclide 137-Cs. Behrens et al. predict a too late time of arrival but with lower activities that appear to more realistic. It important to note that these models carry the own simplifications and assumptions (e.g. see section 3.4 Caveats of the Behrens et al. (2012) study) and that recent measurements suggest that some of the Fukushima plume is being dispersed to the south rather than to the east in the Pacific (e.g. Kumamoto et al. (2014) open-access; more on this study in a forthcoming post).
Articles that confuse the conclusions of the Chinese study are a good example of poor reporting on an important subject. The example here was originally spawned by Energy News who have a history of inaccurate reporting on Fukushima and then propagated through the web by uncritical followers of the site.
Interview on Terry Moore’s program The Drive begins at the 5 minute mark and can be found
A Twitter user interested in the InFORM network asked the following question today:
“…do you have a public list of all products in Fukushima emissions?”
It is important to realize that release estimates are not fully constrained and that estimates improve as more and more measurements are made in the environment. A useful, peer-reviewed, open access study that summarizes release estimates is Povinec et al. (2013) published in the journal Biogeosciences. Table 1 from this study is shown below and can be maximized by clicking the image:
Full references for the table are available in the Povinec paper by following the link given above. Estimates of plutonium released by the Fukushima disaster are provided in this summary with peer-reviewed studies linked to within the document. Measurements of Pu in soil, air and water suggest that 1 to 1,000,000 fold less Pu was released from Fukushima compared to 137-Cs emissions given above.
Below we present near comprehensive inventories of radionuclides in the reactor cores of Units 1,2 and 3 and in the spent fuel pools of Units 1,2,3 and 4 at the time of the accident as reported by:
Nishihara, K., H. Iwamoto, K. Suyama. 2012. Estimation of Fuel Compositions in Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai. Japan.
The following information has been modified from:
Tables in the pdf file given just below contain information on the radionuclide, grams of radionuclide present, half-life of element, activity in Bq and ratio to 137-Cs in the core or spent fuel respectively.